Treasury predictions during the EU referendum campaign were wrong to the tune of £100billion, according to a report which accuses former Chancellor George Osborne of overseeing a “gross miscarriage of government”.
The author, Timothy Congdon, a world-leading monetary analyst, describes Mr Osborne’s doom-laden forecasts as “preposterous”, pointing out that they were incorrect by nearly five per cent of GDP.
He said: “Instead of employment falling by hundreds of thousands, it has risen by hundreds of thousands. Instead of house prices going down, they have gone up. Instead of the public finances lurching more heavily into deficit, they have been better than at any time since the Great Recession.
“Above all, Mr Osborne’s scary rhetoric about a return of the Great Recession now looks preposterous. Despite all his supposed capability, he could not have been more wrong.”
He continued: “The grotesque misjudgment was not about something distant from his department’s area of responsibility.
“This was a subject where he had direct ministerial accountability and which was perhaps the defining public policy issue of his career.”
The report, which will be published in the May edition of Standpoint magazine, calculates the difference between the Project Fear forecast and the reality was 4.6 per cent of GDP.
Do you remember George Osborne threatening that there would be an emergency tax-raising budget if the UK voted to leave the EU? This threat, of course, never materialised. It was just an attempt by the elites to scare ordinary people, rather like these unrealistic economic forecasts.
With all of this news, it’s difficult to figure out why the House of Lords are backing us staying in the Customs Union, unless of course it’s self interest, EU pensions and so on!